Week 1 of the NFL began with a 13-10 Seattle Seahawks win over the New England Patriots and continued on Thursday night with the NFL's first-ever regular season game played in Australia — a 27-7 victory by the San Francisco 49ers over the Los Angeles Rams.
What will the rest of the weekend have in store for bettors?
Our NFL handicapping team of Corbie Craig, Matt Jacob, Jeremy Pond and Matt Russell combine to give their best bets for Week 1 of the NFL season.
Odds subject to change.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 50.5)
Jacob: The highest total on the Week 1 NFL slate comes from Cincinnati — and it makes complete sense. After all, the Bengals' defense leaked like a broken water main all last season, while Tampa Bay's stop unit was well below average. Also, the two quarterbacks in this contest — Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow — are big-armed veterans who combined for 43 touchdown passes in just 25 games in 2025.Here's what you may not know: Burrow is a notorious slow starter. He has one total touchdown pass in the last three season openers. And for his career, he has many interceptions (five) as TD throws in Week 1. Now check out Cincinnati's points production in its six openers this decade: 17 (vs. Cleveland last year); 10 (vs. New England in 2024); 3 (at Cleveland in 2023); 20 (vs. Pittsburgh in overtime in 2022); 27 (vs. Minnesota in overtime in 2021); 13 (vs. the Chargers in 2020). Only the game against the Vikings (27-24 final) hurdled 43 combined points.
To be fair, Mayfield has been spectacular in his three openers with Tampa Bay (nine TDs, zero INTs). However, only one of the Buccaneers' last four Week 1 games has cleared 43 points.
Then there's this: Since 2022, seven Week 1 contests have closed with a total of at least 50 points. Only twice did the over cash.
Bet: Under 50.5
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5, 46.5)
Jacob: Minnesota followed up its stunning 14-3 record in 2024 with a miserable start to last season, dropping eight of the first dozen games. Rather than throw in the towel, though, the Vikings regrouped and closed on a five-game winning streak to finish one game above .500. And they did it with J.J. McCarthy — now the team's third-string QB — starting four of the five contests.Meanwhile, the 2025 Packers went the complete opposite direction, dropping their final four games after a 9-3-1 start to miss the playoffs for just the second time in seven years.
Bet the Minnesota Vikings to cover the spread at sportsbooks
Obviously, there's no certainty that late-season momentum — either positive or negative — will carry over to this year. But at least the Vikings' roster is in better shape: Minnesota enters the season without a single starter on the injured list. Conversely, Green Bay won't have ineligible running back Josh Jacobs (whose backups are completely unproven); three starting offensive lineman are banged up (and that unit lost two of last year's starters to free agency); star pass-rusher Michah Parsons (torn Achilles) is on IR; and two starting defensive linemen are questionable.
What about new Vikings quarterback Kyler Murray? I believe he'll be a huge upgrade over McCarthy — in large part because I expect head coach Kevin O'Connell to resurrect Murray in the same way he did Sam Darnold two years ago.
Bet: Vikings -1.5
Pond: We are about to experience the Justin Jefferson bounce-back season and it starts against the Packers in this NFC North showdown.
The two-time, First Team All-Pro wide receiver is coming off a campaign he'd surely like to forget. Jefferson finished with career lows in yards (1,048), average yards per catch (12.5) and touchdowns (two) for a Minnesota team that went 9-8 and missed the playoffs.
A season removed from that disappointment, Jefferson will get things cooking with Murray under center against a Green Bay defense missing Parsons.
Jump on this ladder play featuring four wagers, and which includes three at plus money. You can tack on over 110 yards (+310) if you're looking to go even deeper on these bets.
Bet: Jefferson alt receiving yards — 70+ Yards (-136) | 80+ Yards (+110) | 90+ Yards (+158) | 100+ Yards (+225) at FanDuel
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 43.5)
Craig: KennethWalker III is walking into a crowded room in a new offense, in September, with a quarterback who has never handed him the ball in a game that counted. He ran for 1,027 yards on 221 carries across all 17 games for Seattle last season, which comes out to 60.4 yards a game, and the market has posted 61.5. That is last year's rate copied forward with a rounding error on top, and last year Walker was splitting a backfield in Seattle. He is not doing that now.Kansas City signed him on March 12 to a three-year deal worth up to $45 million with $28.7 million guaranteed, and the Chiefs signed him to replace both Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt. You don't pay a running back like that to hand him the same workload he had somewhere else.
Our projection lands at 67.9 yards and the case is volume rather than efficiency. A back getting 13 carries a game in a duo now should be getting more than that as the highest-paid piece of a Kansas City backfield that has lost its two most-used players.
Bet: Kenneth Walker III over 61.5 rushing yards (-109)
Buffalo Bills (-1.5, 44.5) at Houston Texans
Craig: James Cook carried the ball 309 times in the regular season last year (18.2 attempts per game). He has been one of the most durable high-volume backs in football, and the market has him at 17.5 carries, which is a perfectly reasonable place to put a number for a back nobody has any reason to doubt. The problem with copying that number forward is that the man who called those plays is now the man running the team.Offensive coordinator Joe Brady was promoted to head coach on Jan. 27 after Sean McDermott was fired, and Brady has already said publicly that Cook's workload was high and that the backfield needs to share it, with Ray Davis lined up behind him. That is not a beat writer's speculation — it's the head coach describing his own plan.
Then look at the opponent, because Houston fielded the best defense in football last season and then spent the whole offseason making the front even harder to run at, signing Logan Hall in free agency and trading up in the second round for Ohio State defensive tackle Kayden McDonald.
The last time these two teams played, Cook broke a 45-yard touchdown in the first quarter and then spent the rest of the afternoon grinding out 71 yards on his other 16 carries in a 23-19 Houston win, finishing with 17 attempts, which is under the number the market is asking you to lay today.
Bet: Cook under 17.5 rush attempts (-111)
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5, 41.5)
Russell: It's Week 1, and we've already seen a star quarterback not make it out of the first series of the game, but the Falcons' quarterback situation looks to have that beat. Here are Atlanta's options to start at QB for a road game on Sunday:- Michael Penix — not ready to return from an ACL injury.
- Tua Tagovailoa — already rumored to be on the chopping block barring epic performance, tumbled to the ground with a back issue in Thursday's practice.
- Cooper Rush — four interceptions, no touchdowns on 52 attempts last season.
- Jack Strand — undrafted free agent from Division II, Minnesota State-Moorhead.
The Falcons come into the season rated in the market as a below-average team (40 out of 100 in THE WINDOW's estimated market ratings), but teams with quarterback debacles often see their rating for that week fall into the 20s. That would equate to a new line of Steelers -7, at least.
Bet: Steelers -4.5
Dallas Cowboys (-3, 48.5) at New York Giants
Pond: I'm expecting fireworks in this matchup of NFC East rivals who will shine on offense and struggle mightily on defense.Dallas averaged 27.7 points per game a season ago, finishing second in total offense (6,663 yards) and seventh in points. In contrast, the Cowboys were downright atrocious on defense. They conceded a league-worst 30.1 PPG and wound up third in yards allowed (6,409) during a 7-9-1 campaign.
As for the Giants, they weren't much better on the defensive front. They finished 26th in team defense and yielded the fifth-worst yards (6,112) overall a season ago.
Sure, both franchises are optimistic they'll be able to turn things around, but I'm not buying it. These are teams that will be hard to stop when they have the ball and poor trying to defend.
Dallas and New York combined for a whopping 77 points in Week 2 of the 2025 campaign and 51 points in the rematch. I don't think we hit that gaudy number here, but clearing this total shouldn't be an issue.
Bet: Over 47.5 (-128 at DraftKings)