Jefferies sees 46% upside potential in this Adani stock; shares targets for AGEL, Adani Power

"This increases the tied-up volumes of the trading segment to 57 per cent in FY28E vs 20 per cent at the end of Q1 FY27, making EBITDA profile more sustainable. Merchant prices have also been higher during Q2 FY27 till date, which could mean some positive surprise potential in the trading segment in 2Q also," Jefferies said.

The brokerage said AESL management had indicated during its first-quarter FY27 earnings call that it aims to eventually tie up most of its capacity on the consumer side.

"We are currently valuing the trading business at 5x EV/EBITDA Sept 28E vs 22x for the ex-trading business given its volatile nature. As tie-ups increase and volatility reduces, there is scope for re-rating of the segment," Jefferies stated.

"Average merchant prices in Q2 FY27 till date is up 48 per cent YoY and 14 per cent QoQ to Rs 5.8/unit with the first week of Sept 2026 seeing a peak of Rs 7.5/unit. Our Q2 FY27E realisation for the trading business is down 19 per cent QoQ and could see upside surprise. Every 5 per cent change in realisation adds 3% per cent to our FY27E EBITDA," it added.

The brokerage flagged inability to maintain interest rates and market share loss as downside risks for AESL.

Jefferies has also given 'Buy' ratings on Adani Green Energy Ltd (AGEL) and Adani Power Ltd, with target prices of Rs 1,328 and Rs 215, respectively.