After some backlash to playing a Week 1 game on a Friday — a gray area with regards to legal agreements that the pro league wouldn’t step on a night reserved for amateur football in America — the NFL has simply moved the Super Bowl champion Seahawks’ opener up a night, while still sending two teams abroad for Thursday night.
In what sort of feels like a punishment for not beating the Seahawks to at least get to the Super Bowl, and in lieu of driving on the I-5, the Rams and 49ers have been sent to Melbourne, Australia to open their season with a key divisional matchup.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 48.5) in Melbourne, Australia
Across the 16-game Week 1 odds board, there hasn’t been a ton of line movement since the schedule was announced amidst the annual, mid-May social-media frenzy, but what our game handicap pre-supposes that there should have been here?The Rams opened -3 (+100) for this neutral-site tilt — an obvious implication that the Rams were considered, yes, about three points better than the 49ers. Of course, since that line became available, L.A. put together something of its own parlay, making a trade that didn’t just bring the Rams Myles Garrett, but brought Aaron Donald out retirement (restarting the clock on his inevitable first-ballot Hall-of-Fame induction).
Beyond the obvious, Garrett’s grading out as the best pass-rusher in the sport by PFF, with Garrett on the field, the Browns consistently ranked near the top of the NFL in pass-rush win rate, largely because Garrett commanded a league-high double-team rate of roughly 30%. Ipso facto, we can expect a similar impact with him joining the Rams, even with Donald skipping the opener. Is that worth just a half-point, even off of a key number?
Let’s take a look at last season’s betting market, and the matchups for the 49ers-Rams games.
The Niners stunned the Rams in overtime in L.A., in a Week 5 game started by Mac Jones, which was lined at -8.5, or around -7 on a neutral field. Later in the season, again with Jones starting in Santa Clara in Week 10, the Rams closed as 6-point favorites on the road, or around -7 on a neutral field.
A season later, maybe Brock Purdy is a 4-point upgrade on his backup, but Jones was 33-of-39, for 319 yards in a 42-26 home loss last season (and was turnover-free for 342 yards in the first meeting), so how much more can Purdy improve upon that?
Bet Los Angeles Rams -3.5 at sportsbooks
That’s not the only roster upgrade for the 49ers, though, as they’ll have Fred Warner and Nick Bosa back as well. Of course, the Rams match that with Garrett and the earlier additions of Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson from Kansas City, addressing the issues they had at cornerback last season.
In the end, the 49ers are dining out on a 12-5 record in 2025, but after a Week 1 win in Seattle, outside of the quasi-miracle win in L.A., and stealing a victory in Philadelphia in the divisional round, San Francisco was outplayed by the best teams on last year’s schedule (Houston, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay), and demonstrably in rematches with the Seahawks and Rams.
Finally, it’s been reported that Sean McVay and the Rams have done extensive studies on how to handle the travel in international games, and their “turn-and-burn” strategy worked well in a 35-7 win over Jacksonville — England regulars — last season.
Even though we’re not capturing a key number in a game that could easily be lined a couple points higher, look for the Rams to send something of a message to the rest of the league against a familiar foe.
Bet: Rams -3.5
Player props
RB Christian McCaffrey under 60.5 rushing yards (-110, Bet365)
Age is just a number, but McCaffrey’s is now 30.The 2025 Comeback Player of the Year ran into literal trouble when facing the Rams last season, long before they added Garrett for this game. McCaffrey tried the Rams’ defense 34 times on the ground, totalling 87 yards in the two games, for an average of 2.55 yards per carry.
Bet Christian McCaffrey under 60.5 rushing yards at sportsbooks
While that was his toughest matchup, despite the season-long accolade, McCaffrey and the Niners’ offensive line struggled to find space. Of the 17 players to run for at least 1,000 yards, McCaffrey was the only one to average less than 4.0 YPC.
He’ll be a weapon in the passing game, as always, but likely needing more than 15 carries, and maybe as many as 20, in a game that could get away from the Niners, we’ll take the under on another future Hall of Famer.
RB Blake Corum over 43.5 rushing yards (-110, Bet365)
Corum’s usage went from “in case of emergency” in his 2024 rookie season as Kyren Williams’ backup, to “we need to get this guy more touches” in Year 2.Per our look at 32 bets for 32 teams article last week, Corum’s share of the carries went up to 36% last season, on the strength of a 41.5% rate in the final 11 games.
Corum ran for 5.1 yards per carry, so the hope is that all he needs on Thursday is around eight carries — a number Corum got in eight of the final 11 regular season games, and two of three in the playoffs.
You’d think trekking across the Pacific Ocean would accentuate the desire to split the work in the opener, against an opponent that was second-last in the NFL in defensive success rate against opponents’ rushing plays.
TE Terrance Ferguson longest reception over 15.5 yards (-115, Bet365)
As a rookie, Ferguson was a designated hitter — a talented receiver in a big body that the Rams would spring on opponents, seemingly out of nowhere, and deep down the field. Eight of his 11 regular season receptions were for at least 18 yards.Ferguson is listed as questionable for Thursday night, so if he’s unable to go, this bet will be refunded.
Anytime touchdown scorers
WR De’Zhaun Stribling (+350, FanDuel)
The buzz around Stribling from the preseason shortened his odds for Offensive Rookie of the Year, but there’s still decent payout available for a player who might have an instant connection with Purdy.Stribling has earned a starting spot in the 49ers’ three-receiver sets, and with Mike Evans getting the attention from the Rams’ best coverage options in the red zone, and Deebo Samuel on their radar from years of facing the Niners with him, Stribling could parlay a big camp into a good look for a score.
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WR Puka Nacua (+125, FanDuel)
We’re already in on Nacua to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns, so we’ll be occasionally worried about whether the Rams’ quick tosses to him at the goal line will be ruled laterals, but that’s not going to be an issue in game-to-game anytime touchdown betting. Of course, Nacua’s also a deep threat against a relatively weak San Francisco secondary.TE Colby Parkinson (+400, FanDuel)
With Nacua out for their Week 7 trip to London to take on the Jaguars, the Rams had to adjust their offense to feature bigger, three-tight end sets, at the same time that Colby Parkinson was getting healthier, having missed two of the first six games.After their subsequent bye week, Parkinson’s usage shot up the rest of the season, frequently playing more than 70% of the snaps, and scoring eight touchdowns. Those TDs came in seven of 13 games — a rate of better than 50% of the time. Given 4-to-1 odds imply that Parkinson scores just 20% of the time, these odds don’t reflect Stafford’s affection for throwing to his 6-foot-7 red zone target.
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.
