Based on average draft position (ADP), these are the five most likely RB fantasy busts entering 2026. This summer, the fantasy market hasn't budged on these guys. What a great opportunity for savvy managers.
Kicking things off: Christian McCaffrey (RB3 ADP). I pushed readers to fade him when he had the overall-1 ADP in 2020, and again when he was the overall-1 in 2024. Why? Because, based on historical data, each time he had a 90%+ chance of being a major fantasy bust. Well, I'm making the same call in 2026. 30+ year-olds coming off 400+ touch seasons are usually doomed.
Next up, De'Von Achane (RB6 ADP). He's been brilliant in his first three NFL seasons. He's also played primarily with Tyreek Hill (when healthy) and Jaylen Waddle. Now he's playing with three rookie wideouts, a few ceiling-capped journeyman receivers, and a largely untested quarterback. He's also unlikely to handle a massive workload, as the beleaguered Dolphins are more likely to preserve him for 2027 and beyond, rather than overwork him in a lost season.
Why does Derrick Henry have an RB10 ADP? Probably because he's a legendary running back. He's also turning 33, and his per-game targets have steadily declined. He needs 300+ carries and 14+ touchdowns to have a shot at meeting expectations. Don't draft someone whose ADP matches his ceiling.
Ashton Jeanty's ADP has fallen from RB6 a little over two weeks ago to RB11. That's not enough. Rookie Mike Washington has seized the moment, while Jeanty's injury woes could limit him in September. The latter is not guaranteed a bell cow role just because he was a high-priced 2025 rookie.
Finally, I've been screaming from the hilltops since May that David Montgomery is vastly overvalued. Somehow his RB22 ADP has remained stoically consistent. Last year he had one of the league's worst broken-tackle rates, and now he'll run behind a worse offensive line. It's an awful combination.
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This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: You have been warned: the five most likely 2026 RB fantasy busts