Will Brinson's NFL Week 1 predictions and picks: Best bets, player props, anytime touchdown scorers

Week 1 of the Bet on the NFL and more at DraftKings, where new users get $200 in bonuses:

The first week of the season is always tricky for (we're staying away from totals mostly in Week 1) to player -- I just think the Texans are a very difficult defense to play against. And if they're catching points at home to start the year, I'm very interested. 

Buccaneers +3.5 vs. Bengals

It's looking like this line is trying to go the other way and I'm really surprised, frankly. The are an underrated team heading into 2026 and while the should be quite good, I'm not sure there are loads of difference between the two. was very much in the MVP race until midseason injuries to both him and everyone around him derailed the season. He's been talking this offseason like he has something to prove and when Baker has a chip on his shoulder he's incredibly dangerous. Emeka Ebugka is full go for this week (more on him below) and the rest of Baker's weapons look ready to roll. I think Cincy will be able to score on Tampa Bay, but I'm really confident Baker puts up points.

Eagles -5.5 vs. Commanders

As we've discussed on our Early Edge picks shows ( two years ago. The change at OC probably guarantees a more efficient run game and there's enough weapons for this team to dominate a banged-up team that's been struggling in the offseason.

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Week 1 NFL player props

Michael Mayer Over 38.5 receiving yards

If you have lightning fingers, you probably added in your Fantasy leagues and snapped up his props right when the news was announced. But there's still a little meat on the bone here, because there's just not a lot of weapons on the for to throw to. Mayer averages 49 yards per game without Bowers in the lineup and his only competition for targets are , and . Cousins has always been TE-friendly (just look at what he did for to close last year) and Mayer should be able to clear 40 yards against a bad defense. This number is still climbing and is higher elsewhere in the market. I would take it up to 41.5 personally. 

Emeka Egbuka Over 52.5 receiving yards

I'm genuinely shocked by how kind this line is, as well as how low people were on heading into 2026. Before a Week 6 hamstring issue, Egbuka averaged five catches, 90 yards and a touchdown per game -- which included a rough Week 2 effort against the Texans elite defense. Now he's the featured wideout for a dangerous passing attack against what is a slightly-but-not-drastically improved Bengals defense. This game has a 50-point total and Egbuka practiced in full on Wednesday.

Drake London Under 5.5 receptions

The quarterback situation is deteriorating rapidly and it's very possible we end up with or starting this game. If that's the case, I think Kevin Stefanski will keep it reeeeeeeal vanilla and use and Brian Robinson to pound the ball and melt the clock, hoping to minimize exposure. That's bad news for targets total.

Colston Loveland Over 4.5 receptions

Everyone is focused on Luther Burden this offseason and I don't blame them: he could have a monster year. But I think Loveland picks up right where he left off at the end of last season and is one of the top targets for .

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Anytime touchdown scorer props for Week 1

Just as a quick kind of heads up to how I approach these props: I'll generally dabble in some longshots, but this week there are some studs and superstars being a little forgotten at their prices so I'm jumping all over those props.

Saquon Barkley

He could get snaked by Hurts (not bad value at +110), but I think will rip one off against a division opponent in what he hopes will be a bounceback year. And you don't have to lay that much juice for it. We could also theoretically see a little less Tush Push by the goal line with new OC Sean Mannion. 

CeeDee Lamb

averages better than 80 yards per game against the for his career (pretty good in a 12-game sample) and has scored a total of five times in those games. We're expecting a shootout, is fully healthy and Lamb has a relatively decent price here considering we've got a point total bobbing near 50.

Justin Jefferson

This is a great price if you're buying into the narrative that is poised for a bounceback season with under center. I'm sure buying it and I think Kevin O'Connell will want to get Jefferson involved early this season after all that was said about his 2025. If he goes off at all in Week 1, this is probably the best price we'll see all year.

Nico Collins

As noted above, I don't really trust the Bills' new defense without Sean McDermott and while I think the Texans will largely try and pound the ball with David Montgomery, they'll certainly take some shots. C.J. Stroud would like to remind people about 2024 after a rough 2025 and the ensuing offseason, and there's no better way to do it than bombing one to his star wideout .

Garrett Wilson

Again, we're buying the dip here, people. has a great price given his talent and the fact the upgraded at quarterback with . The defense will be better under Robert Salah but they probably won't be a lockdown unit and Wilson at nearly 2.5-1 is a great look in what could be a sneaky shootout.