One of the best — and worst — parts of the college football offseason is all of the speculation it entails. Power rankings, hot takes, and daydreaming help us get through the nearly nine months we endure without college football, but thankfully there are now some actual games to watch (that can turn unsubstantiated takes into reactionary ones!).
Along those lines, every Wednesday this season I will take a couple talking points heading into the upcoming weekend’s game and try to discern between fact or fiction. Up first for the Michigan Wolverines are the Western Michigan Broncos, a Group of Six team who even received a vote in the preseason AP Poll.
Fiction: Western is a CFP contender
I know that the Broncos are not a pushover, bringing back a ton of contributors from the 2025 MAC championship squad. The conference’s coaches voted Western to win the title again this season, and there has been plenty of chatter nationally about this team being a not-so-sneaky contender to earn the Group of Six playoff berth this year.
Personally, though, I just do not see it. Western might be getting some love from voters, but computers are far less optimistic. SP+ ranks the Broncos 94th nationally and behind Miami (OH). The Athletic placed them third in the MAC with a 1.2 percent chance to make the CFP, with 20 other Group of Six schools earning higher playoff odds.
A game against Boise State could be helpful to boost the resume, but this team is probably going to have a tough time winning the conference regardless, which is obviously a requirement for earning the CFP spot. This assessment does not mean Western is a terrible team, but some of the narratives surrounding the Broncos are a bit overblown.
Fiction: Week 1 is just about getting to 1-0
Cheating a bit here, as I wrote about this concept before, but I think it is worth reiterating given all of the offseason…turmoil. Yes, this is a brand new coaching staff, and yes, like any season opener, there will be plenty of changes across the starting lineup, but Michigan is not heading into this year simply hoping to rebuild. Players and coaches might say the goal is to simply be “1-0” but that is not where fans’ expectations are.
If the Wolverines are going to make a run at a CFP spot, which is absolutely on the table, then the team must be firing from the start. The massive game against Oklahoma is nearly here already, but even without a marquee non-conference opponent, Week 1 performances matter a ton. The playcalling might be bland, but dominating a decent, yet clearly overmatched opponent feels a lot different than stumbling through wins like in the past two openers.
And maybe this is really just about Bryce Underwood. The sophomore has a ton to prove this year; we can flush away much of last season, but an immediate recurrence of many of the flaws from the end of 2025 will not win over many doubters. On paper, just getting the win on Saturday is what is needed, but digging a bit deeper shows that Michigan’s trajectory for the rest of the year will absolutely be impacted from Week 1.