Expressed in implied probability, the Saratoga oddmakers are telling us that Golden Tempo – again, the decisive Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner, just the thirteenth horse to win those two legs of the Triple Crown – has just a 28.57% chance of winning the Travers. And, they are saying that Golden Tempo’s nearest competitor in this Travers field, Renegade, who did not win a Triple Crown leg, nevertheless maintains a 25% chance of beating him. How’s that again?
As ever in tight races, the answer to that question is: The tight rating is your problem to figure out, buster. But before we get into what these two monster closers have to do to get by each other, or what they have to do, or not do, to fail at that, here’s this morning’s refresher on the draw and the Saratoga morning line.
Post Position, Trainer, Jockey, Morning Line Odds
1) Emerging Market, Chad Brown, Ricardo Santana, Jr., 15-1
2) Leading Change, Brad Cox, Manuel Franco, 12-1
3) Napoleon Solo, Chad Summers, John Velasquez, 8-1
4) The Puma, Gustavo Delgado, Javier Castellano, 8-1
5) Renegade, Todd Pletcher, Tyler Gaffalione, 3-1
6) Ocelli, Whit Beckman, Edgard Zayas, 20-1
7) Sea Strike, Chad Brown, Flavien Prat, 5-1
8) Baby Vino, Lindsay Schultz, Paco Lopez, 10-1
9) Golden Tempo, Cherie DeVaux, Jose Ortiz, 5-2
10) Silent Tactic, Mark Casse, Luis Saez, 10-1
(Source: New York Racing Association, 8/24/2026)
Ten horses is a relatively big field for the Travers, and this 157th field offers some set ups that could prevent any stretch duels. Somewhat likelier is the fact that Ortiz aboard Golden Tempo and Tyler Gaffalione replacing Irad Ortiz Jr. atop Renegade will each find (or make) space for themselves to bring a run. Whether that happens simultaneously, and in a way that sets up a duel between the favorites, is a question that we’ll have to “believe” as race week drones on in the sense that we’ll sidle up to the betting window, real or virtual, and put move on that.
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