Serbia, the conflicted EU candidate

A common argument for continuing relations with Serbia is therefore

Strong economic ties, close relations with Moscow

Morina accepts that isolating Serbia would be dangerous, but sees other options between accommodation and abandoning relations altogether. The EU should remain engaged with Serbian society while forcing Vucic to make clear political choices, she argues.

Besiri says Russia and China could never replace the European market. In his view, Vucic uses both countries as a threat to discourage Brussels from taking firmer action.

Both researchers see strategies behind the current approach: Vucic benefits from cooperation without implementing the necessary reforms. Brussels, meanwhile, can continue to claim that Serbia remains tied to Europe.

The limits of financial pressure

The EU has not remained entirely inactive. It has started applying financial pressure. Further payments under the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans have been withheld because of concerns about judicial independence.

Besiri doubts that this will change Vucic's calculations. Broad funding cuts could hurt the population more than the political elite, he argues. Instead, he advocates targeted measures against those responsible for the country's democratic decline and the misuse of its institutions.

Could the election bring change?

The early parliamentary election on October 25 could put Vucic's model to the test. After 12 years as president, he now wants to remain Serbia's dominant political figure by becoming the next prime minister.

Besiri says that the political opposition in Serbia remains fragile and that "it is extremely difficult to win democratically in undemocratic elections. "

Neither expert expects one election to repair Serbia's institutions or fundamentally change its relationship with the EU.

Reconciliation remains a distant prospect

According to Besiri, Serbia would first have to acknowledge its role in the wars of the 1990s and accept established facts about the crimes committed. Instead, narratives portraying Serbs exclusively as victims remain deeply embedded in Serbian politics, education and the media.

"What has been happening recently is basically the reverse of everything that has been built for so many years," Morina underlines.

Mladic's funeral did not cause this development, she adds. It simply revealed once again how far Serbia currently remains from both regional reconciliation and EU membership.

Edited by: Carla Bleiker