San Francisco 49ers training camp is in full swing, but Christian McCaffrey has been missing in action. Officially, he’s nursing some “tightness,” but the team isn’t offering too many details, leaving just enough room for speculation.
Since McCaffrey has missed more than a week of practice, some have wondered if his absence is actually related to something else. Specifically, some are starting to wonder whether the three-time First-Team All-Pro has been keeping an eye on the market-resetting contract extensions signed by Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson.
While the 49ers have since put the kibosh on those rumors, one former NFL scout suggests the front office does need to proceed with caution when it comes to the 30-year-old’s future.
Ex- NFL Scout Issues Christian McCaffrey Warning to 49ers
For now, McCaffrey is only signed through the 2027 season. It’s not unreasonable to think he could want a new deal, either in the form of a short extension or one that gives him a slight raise, placing him more in line with the NFL’s highest-paid running backs.
After all, he did lead the NFL in touches a season ago, topping 2,000 yards from scrimmage in the process. He’s also the fifth-highest-paid RB in terms of annual average value, just behind Philadelphia’s Saquon Barkley.
Yet, even if the 49ers’ star running back wants a raise and/or an extension, former NFL scout John Middlekauff suggests that may not be a good idea. He stated his case on his “3 & Out” podcast.
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“Next year, his contract has no guaranteed money,” Middlekauff pointed out. “In the NFL, when you have no guaranteed money, it’s almost like an insurance policy for a team. [Expletive] goes great, we’ll figure out the contract extension, we’ll guarantee that contract. But if it goes bad, Peyton Manning got cut; that’s all I have to say.”
As Middlekauff pointed out, even Hall of Famers like Manning get cut under certain circumstances. In other words, McCaffrey is not untouchable either, far-fetched as that might be.
Middlekauff believes McCaffrey knows the leverage he has as the main component of coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense. It’s not like this roster is built to win without him.
“I never fault players for getting ugly with contracts,” Middlekauff said. “The Niners find themselves in these positions, where it’s like we paid all these guys and then they constantly need raises. Players have more juice now.
“The Niners often find themselves in positions where their players have all the leverage. I do think that Christian McCaffrey’s like, ‘What are you gonna do, play without me? Good luck; you know you can’t, Kyle. You know you want to give me the ball every single play.'”
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As important as McCaffrey is to the 49ers’ foundation, he’s also approaching a tipping point when it comes to running backs. The cold, hard truth is that not many remain highly productive once they get on the other side of 30, and McCaffrey’s coming off a career-high 413 touches.
In other words, should the 49ers’ front office really be willing to offer the aging running back such a high-dollar extension?
“If you’re John Lynch or Kyle Shanahan, it’s like, are we really gonna give this guy a multi-year extension of like $40 million?” Middlekauff asked. “Guarantee him next year and the previous year. What if this year does go bad? Then all of a sudden we’re stuck.
“This is the hard part about football. His injuries play a huge part. You gotta be very careful with extending older players. I just think this is pretty delicate. I’m a huge Christian McCaffrey guy, so if it is the case where he wants a little more money, I understand where he’s coming from.”
McCaffrey still had the third-highest PFN Impact Score among running backs last season at 86.2, so he’s still clearly highly effective. The question is, how much longer can he maintain that elite play, and can he do so after having such a heavy workload last season?
McCaffrey has led the NFL in touches on three occasions. The past two times, he ended up only playing in three and four games in the following season. In other words, the 49ers would be very wise to approach with caution, especially considering McCaffrey is older this time around.
This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network.