That game was supposed to be a warmup for the first big test of the Kyle Whittingham era; instead, the Wolverines are scrambling as they prepare to host the Oklahoma Sooners, a team that beat them last year and went on to the College Football Playoff. The Sooners are just as ambitious this season and come to Ann Arbor as sizable favorites after how last weekend transpired.
Seven days ago, I would have told you this was the tipping point game for Michigan, with a win opening up CFP dreams and a loss keeping reality in check. The calculus has changed substantially since then, with the floor of this year dramatically lowered. A win, though, would erase 90 percent of the hubbub from last Saturday. That is the less likely outcome, but is certainly not off the table.
No. 11 Oklahoma (1-0) at Michigan (1-0)
Date & Time: Saturday, September 12, 12:14 p.m. ETLocation: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: FOX
I believe I pointed out last year how this home-and-home completes Michigan’s recent foray with the seven other blue bloods. With three of them in the Big Ten (plus the Wolverines), perhaps that is not so shocking, but next year’s trip to Austin will somehow make it three games apiece against Texas and Alabama over the past 10 years. The team that has the longest current drought for Michigan? Notre Dame. More on last season’s game in Norman in a moment.
Offense: Second choice coming?
So yea, Bryce Underwood was pretty bad last weekend. All of the concerns about his mechanics and ability to read a defense were realized, and it looks like zero progress has been made since last season, which is very discouraging. Other than JJ Buchanan, none of the other weapons were involved in the passing game, and it will be even tougher to get them active against this stout Sooners defense.The fanbase will always cry for the backup (see: JJ McCarthy, Cade McNamara, Dylan McCaffrey, Brandon Peters, etc.), but to be fair, the head coach did not exactly endorse his current starter this week in front of the media. Personally, I think throwing Tommy Carr out there is not going to fix anything, but I get it. If Underwood continues to play at this level, he will not make it until October, but personally I would not be excited to see Carr debut against a defense that will show plenty of confusing blitzes and coverages.
As bad as Underwood was, the offensive line did not offer him any help against Western and must improve dramatically. The Sooners are extremely aggressive up front and caused a ton of issues in the contest last year. Michigan has the talent along the line, and in the backfield, to still find some success in the ground game, but another shaky performance in this facet is going to make this game very ugly.
There is a little bit of chicken and egg when it comes to who is responsible for all of the problems on offense, but it seems much more realistic that the line plays better than Underwood miraculously figuring it all out this weekend. That means Michigan’s chances hinge on how well the backs can stay on tempo and keep the chains moving. Against a top-10 defense, this is the time for Jordan Marshall and Savion Hiter to show off their elite talent, especially in yards after contact.
Defense: Second time around
The first leg of this home-and-home was not necessarily a throttling, but the Oklahoma offense put up over 400 yards and converted over half of its third downs. The Wolverines somewhat handled the run game (3.5 YPC), but John Mateer still found the end zone twice with his legs and completed 61.8 percent of his passes (please do not look up Underwood’s stats).There are some reasons for optimism in the rematch, largely in the personnel department. Nearly all of the significant backs and receivers from the 2025 Sooners are now gone, and the offensive line is still pretty young. Mateer returns, but was much less effective across the back half of last season, though some might be due to the injury he was recovering from. Without a doubt, this is the less scary half of Brent Venables’ team.
Still, Michigan will absolutely have to be disciplined against Mateer, both with his ability to avoid pass rushers and with his willingness to call his own number. Though the edges are where the talent lies on this defensive line, losing containment could be devastating with this inexperienced linebacking corps playing behind it. Mateer did most of his damage on volume last year, and no one will be surprised to see him run early and often again.
When Mateer does throw, expect Isaiah Sategna to be on the receiving end more often than not. None of the running backs are super scary, but that long third quarter drive by Western does concern me given the questions along the defensive interior. If Oklahoma can scheme up some RPOs and quick hitters to chip away at yardage as well, there could be a nasty repeat of what we have seen before.
Second gear
For 59 minutes and 59 seconds last week (well, aside from the opening drive), Michigan just felt like it needed to wake up. How on earth the opening game fell flat after everything that happened last December is quite alarming, but this is a second chance to unequivocally show that the past is in the past. A ranked win will cure most wrongs.Getting said win is going to be a big challenge, and nearly impossible if the team shows the same (lack of) intensity from last week. The defense is going to get torn apart by Mateer if it is not disciplined, and clearly it will have to carry the water for the offense, which is the opposite of what I expected heading into the year. Talent wise, Michigan should like its chances on this side of the ball, but PTSD from Mateer last season is warranted.
All of that being said, it is hard to imagine how Underwood is not the number one talking point on Monday should the Wolverines fall short. That seems a little unfair to me, but that is how this sport works. Unfortunately for the sophomore, this is a tricky, physical defense that seems primed to exacerbate all of his weaknesses. I am not hoping for a quarterbacks switch just yet, but if Michigan pulls off the upset, it is likely in spite of him, not because of him.
