Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
Odds courtesy of Fubo, try for free)
The rushing to sign was one of the weirdest moments of the offseason. I mean, they POUNCED on him. To the surprise of very few, the former Dolphin has not looked great through preseason and in practice. I think . would be starting if he were healthy. The Falcons have a great cast of weapons with , and , but if you don't have a quarterback, does it even matter?
On Thursday, Tagovailoa suffered what was described as an )
It seems people are higher on the than I am this year. I even said they had Fubo, try for free)
I'll bite on the . We don't have a lot of advanced stats to utilize for this pick since it features two very new teams with new quarterbacks and new head coaches, but I would argue that the Raiders are actually one of the most-improved teams on paper. Cousins will be an upgrade over , the offensive line will be better with and , and the defense will be improved with all the new faces, such as and .
Speaking of "on paper," the look like the worst team in the league on paper. This wide receiving corps is headlined by , and , and the secondary looks even less promising with , JuJu Brents and first-round pick . Maybe is a legitimate star and the Dolphins surprise everyone this year, but to me, the Raiders are the better team.
The pick: Raiders -3
Projected score: Raiders 23-17
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at New York Giants
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Stream: Fubo, try for free)The are 1-7 in Week 1 vs. the over the last 20 years, and the Cowboys are 8-0 vs. the Giants in Week 1 primetime games. I would know, because I tried to back the Giants as Week 1 home dogs vs. the Cowboys in 2023. New York lost, 40-0.
I'm high on the Cowboys this year, so I'm putting my money where my mouth is Week 1. This offense is dangerous, as commanded the No. 2 passing attack and No. 2 total offense in the NFL last year throwing the ball to and . The defense famously was atrocious, but it's going to be better with all the additions they made. Guys such as , , , and Cobie Durant will help the Cowboys get back to the playoffs in 2026.
The pick: Cowboys -3
Projected score: Cowboys 28-23
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC, Stream: Fubo, try for free)will start under center just nine months after tearing his ACL. Credit to him, but I have a hard time believing he's going to be able to run around like we're used to. Plus, it appears undrafted rookie will start at one of the tackle spots for the , which is concerning. This defense ranked top three in points per game (18.3), yards per game (278.2) and third down percentage (33.8%) last year, and was one of the most aggressive units in the NFL with a league-leading 68 sacks.
I'm curious to see how different this Broncos offensive attack will be with calling the plays. Sean Payton is an NFL legend, but some of his play-calls last year were confusing to me. Maybe the Broncos offense finds more rhythm immediately. I'm not ruling it out. is a legitimate starting quarterback, as he became the first to ever win 10 games and score 30 total touchdowns in each of his first two seasons. Now, he has out wide, who I think will really open up the offense. I'm not saying "Monday Night Football" is going to be a shootout, but I'm calling for the upset in Arrowhead.
The pick: Broncos +2.5
Projected score: Broncos 17-14
Other Week 1 picks
Seahawks (-3.5) 28-20 over(-3.5) 24-20 over
30-27 over (+7)
Jaguars 20-16 over (+8.5)
(-3) 30-20 over
(+1.5) 23-21 over
(-3.5) 27-23 over
21-20 over (+3.5)
(+1.5) 13-10 over
27-20 over (+9.5)
(-6) 28-21 over
