The 2026 NFL season kicks off with a slew of intriguing matchups, and within those matchups lies a slew of intriguing NFL betting trends.
For instance, did you know that the Los Angeles Rams have covered the point spread in more than 70% of their regular season games over the past season-and-a-half?
Or that the Buffalo Bills — a short Week 1 favorite — have been money in that role over the past four years -- but have come up empty the last six times they've visited Houston (where they will play on Sunday)?
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Or that the Cincinnati Bengals have been a Week 1 bust for the past half-dozen years — as have the New York Giants for the last 15?
Well, now you do. For more interesting -- and potentially actionable -- NFL betting trends, check out the following report that covers five of the top games on the Week 1 docket.
49ers vs. Rams (-3.5, 48.5)
Kickoff: Thursday, 8:35 p.m. ET (Melbourne, Australia)Moneyline: 49ers +165/Rams -200
• In the initial clash between these NFC West rivals last season, backup quarterback Mac Jones led the 49ers to a 26-23 overtime victory in Los Angeles as a 7.5-point underdog.
It marked the fourth straight time in this rivalry that the underdog scored an outright upset and the fifth consecutive time that the underdog covered the spread.
Both streaks ended in Week 10, when the Rams scored a 42-26 blowout win in San Francisco as a 5.5-point favorite. With that triumph, Los Angeles improved to 4-1 straight-up in the last five battles with the Niners and 5-1 ATS in the last six.• Last season, the Rams matched their 12-5 on-field record with a 12-5 point-spread record, tying New England for the second-best ATS mark in the NFL.
L.A. is on a 20-8 ATS regular-season tear dating to Week 8 of 2024 (including 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS as a favorite of 4 points or less).
• San Francisco last year went 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS as a favorite, but 2-4 SU and ATS as an underdog.
Since the 2023 campaign kicked off, the 49ers are 2-8 SU and ATS when catching points ( one of those victories came in L.A. last season).
• The over has cashed in six of the last seven Rams-49ers meetings. However, only four of those contests cleared 48 points.
With this game taking place Down Under, here's an NFL betting trend that carries relevance: Only three of 17 games played outside of the United States since 2023 have topped 48 combined points.
Buccaneers at Bengals (-3.5, 50.5)
Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ETMoneyline: Buccaneers +165/Bengals -200
• Cincinnati halted a three-game season-opening losing skid last season when it barely held off the Browns 17-16. However, the Bengals came up short as a 5-point road favorite, their fourth straight non-cover in Week 1.
During this decade, Cincinnati is 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in season openers.
• On the complete opposite end of the Week 1 NFL betting trends spectrum, the Buccaneers have won five consecutive season openers (4-1 ATS).
During this stretch, Tampa Bay is 3-0 SU and ATS as a visitor.
• The under is 6-1 in Bengals season openers since 2019, with the last four in a row staying low. Total combined points in those seven contests: 44, 29, 51 (overtime), 43 (overtime), 27, 26 and 31.
This particular NFL betting trend can be pinned on Cincinnati's offense, which has averaged just 15.7 points in season openers -- even though quarterback Joe Burrow started the last six of them.
Meanwhile, the under also has cashed in three of Tampa Bay's last four Week 1 outings, with only one contest hurdling 43 points.
• According to SportsOddsHistory.com, only seven Week 1 games since 2022 have closed with a total of 50 points or higher. The under is 5-2 in those contests.
Bills (-1.5, 44.5) at Texans
Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ETMoneyline: Bills -115/Texans -105
• Despite going 12-5 last season -- its seventh straight double-digit win campaign -- Buffalo finished underwater for bettors, going 8-9 ATS.
On the bright side of the NFL betting trend ledger, though, the Bills have delivered big-time profits as a short favorite in recent years. Since 2022, they are 11-2 SU and 10-2-1 ATS when laying three points or fewer (including 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS on the road).
• Houston kicked off the 2025 campaign in Los Angeles with a 14-9 loss to the Rams as a 3-point underdog. With that, the franchise fell to 3-7-1 SU and 4-7 ATS in its last 11 Week 1 contests.
But the Texans won nine straight games to close the 2025 regular season, including four straight outright upsets as an underdog.
• Houston has owned the Bills lately, going 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS dating to 2009. This includes six consecutive victories at home (5-1 ATS).
Two of the Texans' home triumphs over Buffalo came in the last two seasons by near identical scores: 23-20 in 2024 (as a 1.5-point favorite) and 23-19 in 2025 (as a 4.5-point underdog).
Not only did the under hit in both contests, each of the last six head-to-head battles in Texas have stayed low.
Packers at Vikings (-1.5, 46.5)
Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ETMoneyline: Packers -102/Vikings -118
• Green Bay pummeled bettors last year, complementing a solid 9-7-1 SU record by going 5-10-2 ATS.
After upsetting the Lions 31-24 as a 3-point underdog on Thanksgiving Day, the Packers closed 1-4 SU and 0-3-2 ATS.
Even with the Turkey Day victory in Detroit, Green Bay went 2-6-1 ATS as a visitor.
• Minnesota followed a dismal 4-8 SU/ATS start to last season with a five-game winning streak. The Vikings covered the point spread in each of the first four victories before beating Green Bay 16-3 as a 13-point home favorite in the finale.
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Minnesota also finished 3-0 at home (2-0-1 ATS) after starting 1-4 SU and ATS at U.S. Bank Stadium.
• The Packers have just one win in their last five trips to Minnesota (1-3-1 ATS), all as an underdog. In fact, the favorite 7-2 SU and 6-2-1 ATS in this rivalry since Week 18 of 2022.
Over that nine-game span, there have been seven double-digit blowouts, and the losing team has scored 10 points or fewer six times.
• Since the start of the 2024 season, 11 of Minnesota's 16 home games have come up short of the closing total -- including each of the final six contests in 2025.
Cowboys (-2.5, 48.5) at NY Giants
Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ETMoneyline: Cowboys -150/Giants +125
• Dallas finished 12-5 SU in three straight seasons from 2021-23 and produced solid profits along the way (33-18 ATS). Since then, however, the Cowboys are 14-19-1 SU and 14-20 ATS.
Dallas was favored 13 times in the past two years, going 6-7 SU and 3-10 ATS.
• Although they posted a third consecutive losing season (and eighth in the last nine), the 2025 Giants at least didn't bury their supporters. New York finished 9-8 ATS, capped by season-ending blowout wins over the Raiders (34-10) and Cowboys (34-17).Despite that latter result, Dallas is 16-2 SU and 12-6 ATS versus New York over the past nine seasons. Also, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is 14-3 SU and 10-7 ATS against the Giants in his career, with 31 touchdown passes and nine interceptions.
• Another negative NFL betting trend that the Giants encounter right out of the chute: They have lost 13 of 15 season openers since 2011, going 3-12 ATS.
Since 2020, New York is 1-5 SU and ATS in Week 1 — and all five were double-digit defeats by an average margin of 20.2 points. That includes a 40-0 home loss to Dallas in the 2023 opener.
• From 2020-24, the under cashed at an astonishing 60.2% clip in Giants games (56 unders, 27 overs, 1 push).
That NFL betting trend finally flipped last year, when 11 of New York's 16 contests topped the total (including six of the last seven overall and five of the last six at home).
Meanwhile, the over is 33-17-1 in Cowboys games over the past three seasons (16-8-1 at home, 17-9 on the road).
