The time has come. The 2026 season is upon us. We are past the time of watch lists and preseason awards and have entered the time of bowl projections. Our team at Mountain West Connection will be releasing our bowl projections each week. This season, both Mountain West and Pac-12 projections will be included in the same post. Our first round of projections are below and will likely change as the season progresses. Leave your own thoughts in the comments.
Note that bowl tie-ins are extremely messy this year, more than usual. Due to that, it’s difficult to even have consistency with the ranking order of bowl games.
For Mountain West Bowls, we will designate the Potato Bowl as the MW Champion, although the champ could go to one of six different bowl games. But for simplicity’s sake, whoever you see in the Potato Bowl is who a writer thinks will be the Mountain West Champ, although we recognize that may not necessarily be the case when the time comes.
For Pac-12 teams, the legacy teams are still locked into the Pac-12 bowl tie-ins. The current champion will be in the Poinsettia Bowl, but after that, it’s a lot of unknown. We will also list the Sun Bowl, as that has traditionally be the last Pac-12 bowl to select and therefore most likely to have a new Pac team. Otherwise, back-up bowls will likely host many of the current Pac-12 teams. And if that wasn’t confusing enough, it’s possible that ESPN could put current Pac-12/old Mountain West teams in MW-affiliated bowls that ESPN owns. However, we won’t entertain that possibility, at least not to start.
Clear as mud? Good. For what it’s worth, we are providing a bowl tie-in key in this post. While it may not be completely accurate, it at least provides a picture of how we are arriving at some of our bowl projections. And as the picture becomes clearer, we will update our explanation key. If you find any info, feel free to let us know in the comments.
Bowl Affiliation Key
Potato Bowl: (Potential) Designated MW Champ
Hawaii Bowl: MW #2
Arizona Bowl: MW #3
New Mexico Bowl: MW #4
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: #1 MW backup
Cactus Bowl: Backup bowl
Poinsettia Bowl: Pac-12 champ
Sun Bowl: Last option for legacy Pac-12 teams
Puerto Rico Bowl: Backup bowl
First Responder Bowl: Backup bowl
Boca Raton Bowl: Backup bowl
College Football Playoff: Highest-ranked G6 team
Mike
Potato Bowl: New Mexico
Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State
Arizona Bowl: Air Force
New Mexico Bowl: Hawaii
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV
Cactus Bowl: N/A
Poinsettia Bowl: Boise State
Sun Bowl: Washington State
Puerto Rico Bowl: Fresno State
First Responder Bowl: Texas State
Boca Raton Bowl: San Diego State
College Football Playoff: N/A
Obviously no changes for the Pac-12 since none of them have played yet. Unfortunately for Hawaii and UNLV, they will be victims of small sample sizes. Both of them drop down in the bowl order for me, which North Dakota State and New Mexico moving up, although the latter is by default at this point. It will be interesting to see how things progress.
Zach
Potato Bowl: North Dakota State
Hawaii Bowl: New Mexico
Arizona Bowl: Hawaii
New Mexico Bowl: Air Force
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV
Cactus Bowl: San Jose State
Poinsettia Bowl: Washington State
Sun Bowl: San Diego State
Puerto Rico Bowl: Fresno State
First Responder Bowl: Utah State
Boca Raton Bowl: Texas State
College Football Playoff: Boise State
Jeff
Potato Bowl: New Mexico
Hawaii Bowl: UNLV
Arizona Bowl: North Dakota State
New Mexico Bowl: Air Force
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: San Jose State
Cactus Bowl: N/A
Poinsettia Bowl: San Diego State
Sun Bowl: Texas State
Puerto Rico Bowl: Washington State
First Responder Bowl: Fresno State
Boca Raton Bowl: N/A
College Football Playoff: Boise State
Pure speculation with a small sample size: UNLV will be hurt the most from this Week 0 loss. Week One will be enlightening for the rest of the teams as they start their season.
Roger
Potato Bowl: New Mexico
Hawaii Bowl: UNLV
Arizona Bowl: North Dakota State
New Mexico Bowl: Hawaii
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Air Force
Cactus Bowl: N/A
Poinsettia Bowl: Boise State
Sun Bowl: San Diego State
Puerto Rico Bowl: Fresno State
First Responder Bowl: Washington State
Boca Raton Bowl: N/A
College Football Playoff: N/A
Dan
Potato Bowl: UNLV
Hawaii Bowl: New Mexico
Arizona Bowl: Hawaii
New Mexico Bowl: North Dakota State
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: San Jose State
Cactus Bowl: Air Force
Poinsettia Bowl: Boise State
Sun Bowl: Washington State
Puerto Rico Bowl: San Diego State
First Responder Bowl: Fresno State
Boca Raton Bowl: Texas State
College Football Playoff: N/A
Much like my actual luck in Vegas, my Rebels CFP prediction never had a chance. Charles Huff’s Memphis crew walked into Sin City and wrecked the party before Week 1 even arrived. Now, the Rebs have a big test on the island with the Rainbow Warriors. In terms of in-conference/bowl outlook, my predictions remain the same.
Vic
Potato Bowl: New Mexico
Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State
Arizona Bowl: Hawaii
New Mexico Bowl: San Jose State
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV
Cactus Bowl: N/A
Poinsettia Bowl: Boise State
Sun Bowl: San Diego State
Puerto Rico Bowl: Fresno State
First Responder Bowl: Texas State
Boca Raton Bowl: Washington State
College Football Playoff: N/A