Brandon Lowe has launched 29 home runs in 2026.
Getty ImagesPete Alonso dug the MLB best home run bets out of the red, hitting a home run at +404 odds on August 26. The home run props have a 21-82 record, with three no-bets this season.
The unimpressive betting record is the product of the long-shot nature of home run bets. Thus, even with only 21 winning wagers on 103 settled bets, the home run props have generated $54 of profit for anyone who bet $100 on each of the touted home run bets at the listed odds.
Today is another opportunity to add to the season’s profits on the nine-game MLB slate. Two of MLB’s top sluggers have the most appealing home run props today, starting with one in the day’s first contest.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
Brandon Lowe (Pittsburgh Pirates - 2B)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+364) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Brandon Lowe has launched 29 home runs in 130 games and 574 plate appearances this year, hitting 23 against righties, 15 at home and nine at home against right-handed pitching. He has also ripped eight home runs in the second half.
Lowe has outstanding batted-ball data. Among 243 qualified hitters in 2026, Lowe is 56th in barrels per plate appearance rate (7.4%), tied for 48th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (12.1%), 49th in hard-hit rate (46.1%), tied for 46th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (95.4 mph), tied for 108th in maximum exit velocity (111.1 mph), tied for 75th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (36.0%) and tied for 87th in launch-angle steepness (15.8 degrees).
The 32-year-old slugger has a favorable matchup this afternoon. Blade Tidwell has allowed five home runs in five starts and eight relief appearances this season, coughing up three in his last start and four of the home runs in his starts.
The 25-year-old righty has allowed four home runs to 84 left-handed batters this year and six to 115 since reaching the Majors last year. Tidwell has also struck out only 14.3% of the left-handed batters he’s faced this season.
Tidwell’s struggles to miss bats against left-handed batters play right into Lowe’s wheelhouse. Lowe’s odds to hit a home run are too compelling to pass up.
Yordan Alvarez has hit 28 of his 37 home runs this year against right-handed pitching.
Getty ImagesYordan Alvarez (Houston Astros - OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+259) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Yordan Alvarez has unloaded for 37 home runs in 138 games and 605 plate appearances this year, tallying 28 against right-handed pitching, 20 at home and 16 at home against righties. He’s in the mix for the home run title.
Predictably for a hitter with as many home runs as Alvarez has, his batted-ball data is exceptional. Among 243 qualified batters this season, Alvarez ranks second in barrels per plate appearance rate (10.8%), sixth in barrels per batted-ball event rate (16.6%), ninth in hard-hit rate (53.5%), tied for 18th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.7 mph), second in maximum exit velocity (118.5 mph), fourth in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (41.7%) and tied for 30th in launch-angle steepness (19.3 degrees).
Alvarez’s matchup on Thursday is mouthwatering. Luis Castillo has coughed up 23 home runs at 1.70 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) in 22 starts and three relief appearances this season. Castillo has allowed precisely two homers in three straight starts, ceded at least one homer in seven of his last eight and allowed multiple homers in six of those starts.
In addition, Castillo has yielded 16 home runs to left-handed batters, 17 on the road and 13 on the road against lefties. Castillo isn’t in an ideal road venue to tame his homer woes, either.
Daikin Park’s 113 park factor for home runs since 2025 ranks eighth. It’s no wonder Alvarez has enjoyed so much homer success at home. He’s highly likely to add to his home run ledger today.
This article was originally published on Forbes.com