The entry comes at a time when India's ice cream industry is witnessing a structural shift towards organised consumption, premiumisation, wider distribution and de-seasonalisation of consumption. Analysts said that the explosion of quick-commerce platforms has also helped turn ice cream into a four-quarter consumption category.
Also Read
From their 2026 low of ₹22.24, touched on March 30, Kwality Wall's shares have zoomed 85 per cent. Likewise, Vadilal Industries shares have bounced back 80 per cent from their January low of ₹3,996. Q1 performance
The performance of the two companies in Q1 was also strong. Data compiled by Business Standard showed that Kwality Wall's delivered 14.9 per cent organic volume growth in Q1, with Ebitda margin expanding to 12.1 per cent. Vadilal Industries reported 34.2 per cent year-on-year revenue growth and 65.5 per cent growth in operating profit.
Can incumbents retain market share? According to Saurav Chaube, equity research analyst at SAMCO Securities, competition will indeed increase for Kwality Wall's and Vadilal with RCPL's entry. However, established players could sustain their market share as ice cream is different from many other FMCG categories, given the importance of cold-chain infrastructure in distribution.
“Established players already have networks and strong regional brands. Reliance, however, has the advantage of a large retail ecosystem, strong distribution capabilities and the ability to invest aggressively,” he said, adding that the immediate impact is likely to be greater on pricing power rather than volumes.
Kwality Wall's has the advantage of Unilever's established brands such as Magnum and Cornetto, along with a strong cold-chain network. Vadilal, meanwhile, has a strong value proposition and around 16 per cent share of the organised market, with FY25 revenue of around ₹10.1 billion.
“Reliance's entry at the ₹10 price point is set to intensify price competition. The bigger risk is near-term margin pressure if the industry responds aggressively on pricing,” said Sandeep Abhange, research analyst, consumer & midcaps at LKP Securities.
Unorganised segment Analysts said that Reliance's entry could also intensify competition in the unorganised segment. They argue that the unorganised segment has remained a difficult space even for the established players to penetrate, mainly due to affordability and distribution. But Reliance's pricing power gives it an advantage. Also, Reliance possesses unmatched financial muscle.
Disclaimer: View and outlook shared belong to the respective brokerages/analysts and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers' discretion is advised.
