Investing.com -- Freeport-McMoRan (), the largest US-listed copper producer, shares surged on Tuesday after LME three-month copper touched an intraday all-time high of $14,694 per ton, surpassing the previous record of $14,527.50 set in January 2026.
Each 10-cent rise in the copper price is worth approximately $390 million in annual EBITDA for Freeport-McMoRan, per its own management sensitivity model, making Tuesday's record-setting session a material earnings event in real time.
FCX shares are trading up 7.2% to $77.99 as of 10:26 AM ET and up 44% year-to-date, putting them broadly in line with copper-mining peers and , both also up roughly 45% on the year. LME copper was last trading up 1.1% at $14,673 per ton on the session as of Tuesday's activity.
The rally is being fueled by a convergence of structural and tactical pressures on supply. US-bound metal flows have accelerated ahead of possible tariff action, pulling copper inventories out of global warehouses and into American ports. Meanwhile, Chile — the world's dominant producer — reported its weakest second-quarter output in at least 19 years and has now cut its full-year production forecast for a second consecutive quarter, projecting a 2.6% annual decline, according to the Economic Times. Morgan Stanley, which began 2026 expecting mine supply to expand, now projects copper production remaining broadly flat or edging lower, which would mark the first annual decline in global copper mine supply since 2017.
"Supply will come, but the question is how quickly," Anglo American Chief Operating Officer Ruben Fernandes said, as quoted by the Economic Times.
At the current trajectory, Freeport's EBITDA sensitivity becomes increasingly consequential. Management projects EBITDA at $13 billion assuming $5 per pound copper, rising to $20 billion at $7 per pound for 2027 and 2028. Copper on Tuesday was trading above $6.60 per pound in LME terms, implying FCX's earnings profile sits well above the $13 billion floor if prices hold. Investors seeking a read on street expectations should note those EBITDA figures come from the company's own model and have not been independently verified from a second source.
Citigroup analyst Tom Mulqueen forecasts copper reaching $15,000 per ton by year-end, with an upside scenario of $17,000 if manufacturing recovers or demand from energy transition, data centres, or strategic stockpiling exceeds expectations. The broader miner complex is responding: TSX precious and base metals stocks dominated the top gainers list on Tuesday, according to Investing.com data, reflecting the synchronised strength across copper and .
Two near-term catalysts could either extend or arrest the copper rally. The European Central Bank meets Thursday, September 10, and is widely expected to raise euro-zone rates by 25 basis points; the outcome will shape global risk appetite and commodity-linked equity flows, including FCX. More decisive may be US inflation data due Friday, September 11. A hotter-than-expected print would sharpen Fed rate-hike expectations, potentially pressuring copper and mining equities by strengthening the dollar and cooling growth sentiment. A benign reading, by contrast, would keep the macro runway clear for copper's push toward the $15,000 level that Citi's Mulqueen projects by December.