One of the things I spend the most time on every offseason is figuring out which roles are actually changing. We spend so much energy talking about talent in fantasy football, but talent doesn't score points if the opportunity isn't there. A receiver leaves in free agency. A team makes a trade. A young player earns more trust. Suddenly, someone who was the third option a year ago is walking into 100-plus targets. That's where my projections and Trinity usage model help me. I'm not using Trinity as a talent grade. I'm using it to translate how a player was actually deployed into a single, predictable year-over-year usage score. It's built from how a receiver earns work in real games and how that role tends to carry forward. The idea is simple: if I can understand how a player was used, I can better project how they'll be used next season. Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2026 NFL season For this exercise, I'm looking at five receivers whose jobs could look very different in 2026. Some are gaining opportunity. One is losing it. And in a couple of cases, I don't think the fantasy market has fully adjusted yet. DJ Moore, Buffalo Bills DJ Moore is probably the cleanest one on the list. I have him projected for 140 targets in Buffalo after he saw only 85 across a full season in Chicago. That's a jump from five targets per game to more than eight. We're not talking about somebody coming back from an injury or getting credit for playing more games. His actual role is changing. And Buffalo needed this. We've talked about whether the Bills had a true target-commanding wide receiver next to Josh Allen since the departure of Stefon Diggs. Now, they went out and got one.
Moore's projected usage score jumps from 5.76 last season to 7.92 in Buffalo. That's elite territory and it's the biggest upward movement of any receiver in this group. A big part of why I like this fit is the continuity. Moore is reunited with Joe Brady, the same offensive coordinator who helped him clear 1,000 yards earlier in his career. That matters more than people want to admit. When a coach already knows how to deploy a player, the learning curve disappears and the usage tends to stabilize faster. I also love the structure of this offense. Buffalo used motion on 63.4% of its snaps last season compared to a league average of 54.1%. That's perfect for Moore because you don't have to stick him outside and ask him to win the same way every snap. Move him around. Get him the ball underneath. Use the screen game. Give him touches in space and let him work. We've seen Moore do all of that throughout his career. Yahoo ADP is around pick 63 right now. And I'm good with that draft price. Sometimes we spend too much time trying to find a discount when the better move is just drafting the good player in the good situation. Moore is one of those guys for me. Parker Washington, Jacksonville Jaguars I think he's Jacksonville's No. 1 receiver. Full stop. Not Brian Thomas Jr. Not Jakobi Meyers. Parker Washington. And I understand why the market hasn't fully bought into that yet. Washington wasn't a first-round pick. He doesn't have the name value Thomas does and he's spent most of his NFL career being viewed as more of a complementary player. But I'm not drafting NFL draft capital in 2026. I'm drafting the role.
Washington ran 412 routes last season and earned 95 targets for 847 yards. More importantly, when Jacksonville needed a play, Trevor Lawrence was looking his way. Washington ranked 11th among receivers in my third-down usage data and produced more than three yards per route run in those situations. That matters to me. Anybody can pile up some first-and-10 targets in a spread offense. I want to know who the quarterback trusts on third-and-6, when everybody in the stadium knows he's throwing it. Washington showed me something there. My projection gives him 118 targets this season, the most on the Jaguars. Brian Thomas Jr. is at 105 with Jakobi Meyers behind them. That's not me saying Thomas is bad. It's me saying Washington's role last year was real — and I think it gets bigger. Jacksonville is also still an offense I want exposure to. Trevor Lawrence has a chance to push toward the top tier of fantasy quarterbacks again and this passing game should create plenty of opportunity. The market has Thomas and Washington almost side by side. Thomas' current Yahoo half-PPR ADP is around 80 while Washington is around 86. Fine by me. If you're asking me which Jacksonville receiver I want in that range, give me Washington. Matthew Golden, Green Bay Packers At some point, Matthew Golden has to take the next step. Green Bay selected him in the first round for a reason. Now Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks are gone. That's 131 targets walking out of the building and Green Bay didn't replace them with another established receiver. Christian Watson is the player I project to lead this room. I'm not fighting that. But there is a huge difference between saying Watson is the No. 1 and saying there isn't enough left for Golden. There absolutely is. This is a former first-round pick entering Year 2 with a cleaner depth chart and a legitimate path to around 100 targets. That's what I'm buying.
Golden's usage as a rookie wasn't anything special. He was still figuring out how to play within this offense and Green Bay didn't need to force him into a featured role. Now they need more from him. That's the role change. I'm less interested in telling you exactly how many receiving yards my median projection spits out and more interested in the opportunity that's sitting in front of him. If Golden takes advantage of it, his ceiling projection gets to 12.2 fantasy points per game. And here's where the price makes this really easy for me. Golden's current Yahoo half-PPR ADP is around pick 172. At that point, what are we really risking? I'm getting a 23-year-old former first-round receiver whose team just removed two veterans from the depth chart. I'll take that shot all day. Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos Courtland Sutton is the opposite side of this conversation. Everybody else on this list has a chance to gain something. Sutton is about to lose something. Denver went out and got Jaylen Waddle because it wanted a different type of receiver at the top of this offense. Waddle is younger and more explosive. He gives Sean Payton a player who can stress a defense horizontally and vertically in ways Sutton simply doesn't at this stage of his career. They're not bringing Waddle in to be Sutton's sidekick. They're bringing him in to be the guy. That changes how I view Sutton.
His targets per game fall from 7.29 last season to 5.41 in my projection and his usage score takes one of the biggest drops in this group. The early-down numbers help explain why. Waddle ranked 11th among 227 qualifying receivers on first and second down usage last season. Sutton ranked 70th. That's important because early downs are where an offense has options. You're not backed into throwing. You're not chasing the sticks. You get to decide who you want involved. And Denver just added a player who was already significantly better in those situations. I know the counterargument. Denver is going to throw the football a ton again. I agree. This should still be an offense pushing close to 600 pass attempts. But those targets now have to find Waddle, Sutton, Troy Franklin, Pat Bryant, Evan Engram and Marvin Mims Jr. That's a much different target tree for Sutton. His Yahoo half-PPR ADP is still around pick 99. That's where I lose interest. I'm not saying Sutton can't have good weeks. I'm saying you're paying for a role that I don't think exists anymore. Let somebody else do that. Jalen Coker, Carolina Panthers Jalen Coker might be the easiest late-round bet on this entire list. At this point, I don't really view Carolina's WR2 job as a competition. It's Coker's. We spent a lot of last offseason waiting on Xavier Legette because of the draft capital and the physical profile. Then they got on the field and Coker was simply more efficient. Legette finished at 5.09 yards per target. Coker was at 8.37.
My usage data preferred Coker too. His Trinity score was better overall and he was more effective on third down. When both players were getting opportunities, Coker did more with them. That's why my projection has him over 100 targets while Legette falls well behind him. Now, Carolina did just sign Darren Waller to a one-year deal. That's new information and it matters. Waller can take some work in the middle of the field and he can absolutely take away some red-zone opportunities. But Darren Waller signing doesn't change who Carolina's second wide receiver is. It's Coker. Tetairoa McMillan is the alpha. Coker is the No. 2. Waller gives Bryce Young another option in the passing game. I can live with all three of those things being true. What makes Coker so interesting is the cost. His current Yahoo half-PPR ADP is around pick 202. Two hundred and two! We're talking about a receiver I project for more than 100 targets with a ceiling of 14.1 fantasy points per game and Yahoo drafts are basically telling you to take him whenever you feel like it. That's the type of pick I want at the end of my draft. If I'm wrong, I drop him. If I'm right, I just stole a starting wide receiver. The Takeaway This is really what I'm trying to identify with my projections every offseason. Not who is going to magically become more talented, but whose job changed? DJ Moore is walking into the biggest role he's had in years, now reunited with Joe Brady in an offense that already knows how to use him. Parker Washington has already shown Jacksonville that he can handle important targets and I think he's the No. 1 receiver in that offense. Matthew Golden has a first-round pedigree and 131 vacated targets staring him in the face. Jalen Coker has earned the WR2 job in Carolina and the market is treating him like he's still fighting for it. Then you have Courtland Sutton, whose offense just went out and found a younger, more explosive receiver to take over the top of the target tree. That's the stuff I care about. Roles change faster than reputations do. Fantasy value usually lives somewhere in between.