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Fantasy baseball streaming starting pitchers: Andrew Painter is a new man, but is Grayson Rodriguez?

Welcome to your fantasy baseball starting pitcher happy place. This is a new column for me this year that will combine a few things I ve done in the past. In this article, every Monday, you.

Fantasy baseball streaming starting pitchers: Andrew Painter is a new man, but is Grayson Rodriguez?

Welcome to your fantasy baseball starting pitcher happy place. This is a new column for me this year that will combine a few things I've done in the past. In this article, every Monday, you'll not only get a list of my favorite streaming starting pitchers for the whole week, but underneath that, you'll get a breakdown of a few pitchers who are making interesting changes to their pitch mix. Today I covered Andrew Painter, Kade Anderson, Tyler Mahle, and Grayson Rodriguez.

It's a little bit of rankings and a little bit of analysis, and hopefully a lot of help for your teams.

As far as which pitchers on this list you'll want to stream, your decisions will change based on your league type and settings. Since I'm listing starters for the whole week, I won't be able to provide a detailed analysis for each one; I'll highlight the matchup and offer some quick thoughts. As is usual with my articles, a streaming starter pitcher is rostered in less than 40% of Yahoo formats, so just keep that in mind as we’re going through because I won't be mentioning pitchers who are rostered in more leagues than that. I also won't be mentioning pitchers that I would not start in any format.

MondayFairly ConfidentPitcherRoster%OpponentLeague TypeJose Urquidy1%vs TEX15s and deeperGeorge Klassen29%vs CLE15s and deeperMerrill Kelly35%vs CHC15s and deeperSome HesitationPitcherRoster%OpponentLeague TypeZebby Matthews15%at ATH15s and deeperKumar Rocker11%at CWS15s and deeperCarson Whisenhunt2%vs CIN15s and deeperGeorge Klassen has had two really good starts in a row because he's thrown strikes for two starts in a row. Can you trust him to do it again? I dunno. Throwing strikes consistently has always been a problem for him. I understand if you want to roll the dice, but it's a risk. Jose Urquidy has a mildly interesting two-start week and looked pretty good in his last appearance for the White Sox. I think that could be a decent gamble.

Tuesday
Strong Preference
PitcherRoster%OpponentLeague Type
Clay Holmes41%at ARI12s and deeper
Fairly Confident
PitcherRoster%OpponentLeague Type
Anthony Kay17%vs TEX12s and deeper
Jackson Jobe21%vs TB12s and deeper
Andrew Alvarez8%vs COL15s and deeper
Adrian Houser3%vs CIN15s and deeper
Brady Singer19%at SF15s and deeper
Chris Bassitt6%at STL15s and deeper
Max Scherzer6%vs KC15s and deeper
Some Hesitation
PitcherRoster%OpponentLeague Type
Seth Lugo24%at TOR15s and deeper
Gage Jump13%vs MIN15s and deeper
Jack Leiter13%at CWS15s and deeper
Ethan Pecko1%at NYYAL-Only
Clay Holmes is just over the threshold, but I just wanted to highlight him briefly here. I also think Anthony Kay has a decent matchup here, and Adrian Houser has been pitching much better since coming out of the bullpen for the Giants. Jackson Jobe is struggling to miss bats, but the raw stuff is still there, so I can see taking a chance, and Brady Singer has a good matchup here. Max Scherzer has a good two-start week on paper, and three of his last four starts have been decent, so I understand taking the gamble in deeper formats. There are very few strikeouts anymore though.
Wednesday
Strong Preference
PitcherRoster%OpponentLeague Type
Dustin May33%at NYM12s and deeper
Landen Roupp30%vs CIN12s and deeper
Fairly Confident
PitcherRoster%OpponentLeague Type
Will Dion0%vs COL12s and deeper
J.T. Ginn32%vs MIN15s and deeper
Some Hesitation
PitcherRoster%OpponentLeague Type
Connor Prielipp5%at ATH15s and deeper
J.T. Ginn32%vs MIN15s and deeper
Grayson Rodriguez7%vs CLE15s and deeper
AJ Smith-Shawver9%vs LAD15s and deeper
Dustin May was awful in his last start, but I believe in a bounceback here in a good matchup, and I think Landen Roupp (and his new lower arm slot) should handle the Reds. Will Dion will serve as a bulk following for the Nationals against the Rockies, and so I really like his chances to steal a win in this one. He has been really good since coming over from the Guardians.
Thursday
Strong Preference
PitcherRoster%OpponentLeague Type
Sean Manaea31%vs MIL15s and deeper
Some Hesitation
PitcherRoster%OpponentLeague Type
Hayden Wesneski14%at NYY15s and deeper
Spencer Arrighetti14%vs KC15s and deeper
Not a lot of games here on Thursday, but I think you can trust Sean Manaea and his increased velocity, but I can't trust Spencer Arrighetti or Hayden Wesneski against a Yankees lineup that is gonna throw a lot of lefties at him.
Friday
Strong Preference
PitcherRoster%OpponentLeague Type
Jacob Lopez28%vs BAL12s and deeper
Andrew Painter15%at LAAAll Leagues
Jared Jones28%at STLAll Leagues
Fairly Confident
PitcherRoster%OpponentLeague Type
Christian Scott30%vs HOU12s and deeper
Dean Kremer11%vs CWS15s and deeper
Robert Gasser8%vs TEX15s and deeper
Quinn Mathews5%vs PIT15s and deeper
Some Hesitation
PitcherRoster%OpponentLeague Type
Brandon Young27%at ATH15s and deeper
Mitch Bratt9%at SF15s and deeper
Patrick Sandoval9%at NYY15s and deeper
David Peterson19%vs CIN15s and deeper
Cody Bradford11%at MIL15s and deeper
Jackson Kent1%vs MIANL-Only
This is a really good day for streaming. Jacob Lopez has been on a heater that we can't ignore, and Jared Jones is simply too good to fade against a struggling Cardinals offense. I also wrote below about the myriad changes that have been very in on Andrew Painter. I like what Dean Kremer is doing in Minnesota, and this isn't an awful matchup, and Christian Scott is going to face a lot of righties with the Astros, so this could work for him.
Saturday
Strong Preference
PitcherRoster%OpponentLeague Type
Martin Perez29%vs COL12s and deeper
Fairly Confident
PitcherRoster%OpponentLeague Type
Cristian Javier9%at NYM15s and deeper
Bryan Bello10%at NYY15s and deeper
Daniel Lynch IV7%at CLE15s and deeper
Jose Urquidy1%at MIN15s and deeper
Janson Junk7%at WAS15s and deeper
Some Hesitation
PitcherRoster%OpponentLeague Type
Jake Bennett40%at NYY15s and deeper
Cal Quantrill36%at MIL15s and deeper
Carson Whisenhunt2%at ARI15s and deeper
Elmer Rodriguez2%vs BOSAL-Only
Martin Perez feels like a great bet for a win against the Rockies, and Brayan Bello has been good enough in the bulk relief role that I can use him here on a doubleheader day. Daniel Lynch IV was up to 59 pitches in his last outing, so maybe he pushes 70 pitches against the Guardians. That could work out for us. Cristian Javier is making good choices with his new cutter, and I have to believe that the results will eventually come around too. Janson Junk is just a ratios play against a struggling Nationals offense.
Sunday
Strong Preference
PitcherRoster%OpponentLeague Type
Shane Drohan26%vs TEX12s and deeper
Fairly Confident
PitcherRoster%OpponentLeague Type
Matthew Liberatore11%vs PIT15s and deeper
Andrew Alvarez8%vs MIA15s and deeper
Max Scherzer6%vs SEA15s and deeper
Some Hesitation
PitcherRoster%OpponentLeague Type
Chris Bassitt6%at ATH15s and deeper
Zac Thornton20%vs HOU15s and deeper
Seth Lugo24%at CLE15s and deeper
Will Warren42%vs BOS15s and deeper
Shane Drohan was back in the rotation this weekend, so if that continues, I like this spot for him. This is also the second start in the risky two-start weeks for Andrew Alvarez and Max Scherzer. Matthew Liberatore is also on the radar against a slumping Pirates offense.

Starting Pitcher Pitch Mix/Shape Changes

Andrew Painter - Phillies (Four-seam shape/velocity, New Changeup, Sweeper Shape)

I've talked a lot about Painter's changes recently and
Kade Anderson’s four-seamer…

Double-A: 93.7 mph, 2180 rpm, 18.8” VB, -8.4” HB

MLB Debut: 93.6 mph, 1976 rpm, 15.4” VB, -7.3” HB (extension up 2-3”)

The physical baseball is different below AAA. I’m surprised the Mariners had him skip that level. ♂️— Lance Brozdowski (@LanceBroz)

Grayson Rodriguez - Angels (Arm Angle Change, Slider Shape, Curve Shape)

On August 11th, the Angels fired essentially their entire pitching coach staff because of a desire to shift into more modern technology and analytics. As you can see from the tweet below, in a really small sample size, the results have been good. Similarly, Grayson Rodriguez has been much better since late July, posting a 3.33 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 27.7% strikeout rate in his last 27 innings (five starts). So does his arsenal actually look better? Has anything changed since the firings, or is this just a coincidental good run?
This is wild..

The Angels basically fired their entire pitching coach staff to go full send on analytics, and they lead baseball with a 1.64-ERA since — Fuzzy (@fuzzyfromyt)
The first thing I noticed when digging in was that Rodriguez has raised his arm angle. Back in the middle of July, he was throwing from a 36-degree arm angle, and that has continued to rise, with him throwing from a 39-degree angle in his last start last Thursday. As you might expect, that has changed the movement profile on a few of his pitches, namely his slider and curve.

In the middle of July, before raising his arm angle. Rodriguez's curve was 80.7 mph with about eight inches of vertical movement and 7.5 inches of horizontal movement. In his most recent outing, his curve was up to 82 mph with just 5.9 inches of drop and 3.8 inches of horizontal movement. That's a significantly tighter movement profile, which would make sense with the more over-the-top arm angle. He also threw 67 percent of his curves for strikes in this outing, which would be a major improvement from his 55% strike rate on the season. However, it was just three pitches, so we're not working with a large sample here. The curve has been tightening increasingly in recent starts, but this one feels a bit extreme, and he threw just 57% of them for strikes on August 14th, so the command hasn't clearly improved with the new arm angle.

As far as the slider goes, before the arm angle change, his slider averaged 84.6 mph with around zero inches of vertical movement and 5.5 inches of horizontal break. It was up to 87.2 mph in his last outing with 4.8 inches of rise and 3.8 inches of horizontal movement. He also had 3.8 inches of rise in the start before, so this is clearly a slider that is also getting harder and losing any vertical drop that it may have had. It's becoming far more of a cutter. He also threw 78 percent of them for strikes in this last outing, which is well up from his 60% rate on the season, so maybe the more cutter shape of the slider can help him command the pitch better.

The issue is that the harder/tighter shape of his two breaking pitches isn't getting him any more whiffs. Those two pitches combined for zero whiffs in his last start, five in the start before (four from the slider), and three in his start on the 9th. He is still relying primarily on his changeup for whiffs, which is tough for a right-handed pitcher. Especially one with a four-seamer that has below-average vertical movement.

All in all, none of these changes really excites me. I could see the cutter/slider being a decent pitch if he can locate it down and away from righties after elevating some four-seamers, but we're just not seeing that right now.

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