It's a little bit of rankings and a little bit of analysis, and hopefully a lot of help for your teams.
As far as which pitchers on this list you'll want to stream, your decisions will change based on your league type and settings. Since I'm listing starters for the whole week, I won't be able to provide a detailed analysis for each one; I'll highlight the matchup and offer some quick thoughts. As is usual with my articles, a streaming starter pitcher is rostered in less than 40% of Yahoo formats, so just keep that in mind as we’re going through because I won't be mentioning pitchers who are rostered in more leagues than that. I also won't be mentioning pitchers that I would not start in any format.
Monday Fairly Confident Pitcher Roster% Opponent League Type Jose Urquidy 1% vs TEX 15s and deeper George Klassen 29% vs CLE 15s and deeper Merrill Kelly 35% vs CHC 15s and deeper Some Hesitation Pitcher Roster% Opponent League Type Zebby Matthews 15% at ATH 15s and deeper Kumar Rocker 11% at CWS 15s and deeper George Klassen has had two really good starts in a row because he's thrown strikes for two starts in a row. Can you trust him to do it again? I dunno. Throwing strikes consistently has always been a problem for him. I understand if you want to roll the dice, but it's a risk. Jose Urquidy has a mildly interesting two-start week and looked pretty good in his last appearance for the White Sox. I think that could be a decent gamble.
Carson Whisenhunt 2% vs CIN 15s and deeper
Clay Holmes is just over the threshold, but I just wanted to highlight him briefly here. I also think Anthony Kay has a decent matchup here, and Adrian Houser has been pitching much better since coming out of the bullpen for the Giants. Jackson Jobe is struggling to miss bats, but the raw stuff is still there, so I can see taking a chance, and Brady Singer has a good matchup here. Max Scherzer has a good two-start week on paper, and three of his last four starts have been decent, so I understand taking the gamble in deeper formats. There are very few strikeouts anymore though.
Tuesday Strong Preference Pitcher Roster% Opponent League Type Clay Holmes 41% at ARI 12s and deeper Fairly Confident Pitcher Roster% Opponent League Type Anthony Kay 17% vs TEX 12s and deeper Jackson Jobe 21% vs TB 12s and deeper Andrew Alvarez 8% vs COL 15s and deeper Adrian Houser 3% vs CIN 15s and deeper Brady Singer 19% at SF 15s and deeper Chris Bassitt 6% at STL 15s and deeper Max Scherzer 6% vs KC 15s and deeper Some Hesitation Pitcher Roster% Opponent League Type Seth Lugo 24% at TOR 15s and deeper Gage Jump 13% vs MIN 15s and deeper Jack Leiter 13% at CWS 15s and deeper Ethan Pecko 1% at NYY AL-Only
Dustin May was awful in his last start, but I believe in a bounceback here in a good matchup, and I think Landen Roupp (and his new lower arm slot) should handle the Reds. Will Dion will serve as a bulk following for the Nationals against the Rockies, and so I really like his chances to steal a win in this one. He has been really good since coming over from the Guardians. Wednesday Strong Preference Pitcher Roster% Opponent League Type Dustin May 33% at NYM 12s and deeper Landen Roupp 30% vs CIN 12s and deeper Fairly Confident Pitcher Roster% Opponent League Type Will Dion 0% vs COL 12s and deeper J.T. Ginn 32% vs MIN 15s and deeper Some Hesitation Pitcher Roster% Opponent League Type Connor Prielipp 5% at ATH 15s and deeper J.T. Ginn 32% vs MIN 15s and deeper Grayson Rodriguez 7% vs CLE 15s and deeper AJ Smith-Shawver 9% vs LAD 15s and deeper
Not a lot of games here on Thursday, but I think you can trust Sean Manaea and his increased velocity, but I can't trust Spencer Arrighetti or Hayden Wesneski against a Yankees lineup that is gonna throw a lot of lefties at him.
Thursday Strong Preference Pitcher Roster% Opponent League Type Sean Manaea 31% vs MIL 15s and deeper Some Hesitation Pitcher Roster% Opponent League Type Hayden Wesneski 14% at NYY 15s and deeper Spencer Arrighetti 14% vs KC 15s and deeper
This is a really good day for streaming. Jacob Lopez has been on a heater that we can't ignore, and Jared Jones is simply too good to fade against a struggling Cardinals offense. I also wrote below about the myriad changes that have been very in on Andrew Painter. I like what Dean Kremer is doing in Minnesota, and this isn't an awful matchup, and Christian Scott is going to face a lot of righties with the Astros, so this could work for him.
Friday Strong Preference Pitcher Roster% Opponent League Type Jacob Lopez 28% vs BAL 12s and deeper Andrew Painter 15% at LAA All Leagues Jared Jones 28% at STL All Leagues Fairly Confident Pitcher Roster% Opponent League Type Christian Scott 30% vs HOU 12s and deeper Dean Kremer 11% vs CWS 15s and deeper Robert Gasser 8% vs TEX 15s and deeper Quinn Mathews 5% vs PIT 15s and deeper Some Hesitation Pitcher Roster% Opponent League Type Brandon Young 27% at ATH 15s and deeper Mitch Bratt 9% at SF 15s and deeper Patrick Sandoval 9% at NYY 15s and deeper David Peterson 19% vs CIN 15s and deeper Cody Bradford 11% at MIL 15s and deeper Jackson Kent 1% vs MIA NL-Only
Martin Perez feels like a great bet for a win against the Rockies, and Brayan Bello has been good enough in the bulk relief role that I can use him here on a doubleheader day. Daniel Lynch IV was up to 59 pitches in his last outing, so maybe he pushes 70 pitches against the Guardians. That could work out for us. Cristian Javier is making good choices with his new cutter, and I have to believe that the results will eventually come around too. Janson Junk is just a ratios play against a struggling Nationals offense.
Saturday Strong Preference Pitcher Roster% Opponent League Type Martin Perez 29% vs COL 12s and deeper Fairly Confident Pitcher Roster% Opponent League Type Cristian Javier 9% at NYM 15s and deeper Bryan Bello 10% at NYY 15s and deeper Daniel Lynch IV 7% at CLE 15s and deeper Jose Urquidy 1% at MIN 15s and deeper Janson Junk 7% at WAS 15s and deeper Some Hesitation Pitcher Roster% Opponent League Type Jake Bennett 40% at NYY 15s and deeper Cal Quantrill 36% at MIL 15s and deeper Carson Whisenhunt 2% at ARI 15s and deeper Elmer Rodriguez 2% vs BOS AL-Only
Shane Drohan was back in the rotation this weekend, so if that continues, I like this spot for him. This is also the second start in the risky two-start weeks for Andrew Alvarez and Max Scherzer. Matthew Liberatore is also on the radar against a slumping Pirates offense.
Sunday Strong Preference Pitcher Roster% Opponent League Type Shane Drohan 26% vs TEX 12s and deeper Fairly Confident Pitcher Roster% Opponent League Type Matthew Liberatore 11% vs PIT 15s and deeper Andrew Alvarez 8% vs MIA 15s and deeper Max Scherzer 6% vs SEA 15s and deeper Some Hesitation Pitcher Roster% Opponent League Type Chris Bassitt 6% at ATH 15s and deeper Zac Thornton 20% vs HOU 15s and deeper Seth Lugo 24% at CLE 15s and deeper Will Warren 42% vs BOS 15s and deeper Starting Pitcher Pitch Mix/Shape Changes
Andrew Painter - Phillies (Four-seam shape/velocity, New Changeup, Sweeper Shape)
I've talked a lot about Painter's changes recently and Kade Anderson’s four-seamer…
Double-A: 93.7 mph, 2180 rpm, 18.8” VB, -8.4” HB
MLB Debut: 93.6 mph, 1976 rpm, 15.4” VB, -7.3” HB (extension up 2-3”)
The physical baseball is different below AAA. I’m surprised the Mariners had him skip that level. ♂️— Lance Brozdowski (@LanceBroz) Grayson Rodriguez - Angels (Arm Angle Change, Slider Shape, Curve Shape)
On August 11th, the Angels fired essentially their entire pitching coach staff because of a desire to shift into more modern technology and analytics. As you can see from the tweet below, in a really small sample size, the results have been good. Similarly, Grayson Rodriguez has been much better since late July, posting a 3.33 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 27.7% strikeout rate in his last 27 innings (five starts). So does his arsenal actually look better? Has anything changed since the firings, or is this just a coincidental good run? This is wild..
The Angels basically fired their entire pitching coach staff to go full send on analytics, and they lead baseball with a 1.64-ERA since — Fuzzy (@fuzzyfromyt)
In the middle of July, before raising his arm angle. Rodriguez's curve was 80.7 mph with about eight inches of vertical movement and 7.5 inches of horizontal movement. In his most recent outing, his curve was up to 82 mph with just 5.9 inches of drop and 3.8 inches of horizontal movement. That's a significantly tighter movement profile, which would make sense with the more over-the-top arm angle. He also threw 67 percent of his curves for strikes in this outing, which would be a major improvement from his 55% strike rate on the season. However, it was just three pitches, so we're not working with a large sample here. The curve has been tightening increasingly in recent starts, but this one feels a bit extreme, and he threw just 57% of them for strikes on August 14th, so the command hasn't clearly improved with the new arm angle.
As far as the slider goes, before the arm angle change, his slider averaged 84.6 mph with around zero inches of vertical movement and 5.5 inches of horizontal break. It was up to 87.2 mph in his last outing with 4.8 inches of rise and 3.8 inches of horizontal movement. He also had 3.8 inches of rise in the start before, so this is clearly a slider that is also getting harder and losing any vertical drop that it may have had. It's becoming far more of a cutter. He also threw 78 percent of them for strikes in this last outing, which is well up from his 60% rate on the season, so maybe the more cutter shape of the slider can help him command the pitch better.
The issue is that the harder/tighter shape of his two breaking pitches isn't getting him any more whiffs. Those two pitches combined for zero whiffs in his last start, five in the start before (four from the slider), and three in his start on the 9th. He is still relying primarily on his changeup for whiffs, which is tough for a right-handed pitcher. Especially one with a four-seamer that has below-average vertical movement.
All in all, none of these changes really excites me. I could see the cutter/slider being a decent pitch if he can locate it down and away from righties after elevating some four-seamers, but we're just not seeing that right now.
