Derek Fisher does not think the Los Angeles Lakers have to experience the type of dramatic decline that has historically followed LeBron James‘ departure, largely because Luka Doncic is already in his place with the franchise.
Speaking on 97.1 The Fan LA, the five-time NBA champion did acknowledge LeBron’s history of leaving teams in difficult positions but argued the Lakers are just separately, uniquely equipped to survive his departure.
“You think about the few organizations where LeBron has been, you tell me where their record has gotten dramatically better after he left. So it’s not going to fall off that much because Luka is there.”
“I think Luka and Austin Reaves are basically an all-star backcourt that you can roll out every night, and then Walker Kessler is a young developing almost all-starish type of big in terms of his elite defense and rebounding. So I think you have a chance. 45 to 50 wins, a lot of things are going to have to go right, but it feels fair to me.”
History certainly supports the first part of Fisher’s argument.
When LeBron left the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2010, they went from an NBA-best 61-21 record to 19-63 the following season.
His departure from the Miami Heat also produced another big decline. The Heat went 54-28 and finished second in the Eastern Conference during LeBron’s final season before he returned to Cleveland. Without him, the Heat fell to 37-45 and missed the playoffs.
LeBron’s second Cleveland departure was also more dramatic. The Cavaliers finished with a 50-32 record and fourth in the East during the 2017-18 season and reached the NBA Finals. After LeBron signed with the Lakers, the Cavaliers crashed to 19-63 and finished 14th in the conference.
The Lakers will now attempt to avoid becoming the latest example.
The Lakers went 53-29 and finished fourth in the Western Conference last season before LeBron departed to join the Philadelphia 76ers. Unlike some of LeBron’s previous teams, Fisher thinks that the Lakers already have a legitimate superstar in succession.
Doncic does give something that LeBron’s former teams generally did not have after his departure: an established franchise centerpiece that is capable of carrying an elite offense. Austin Reaves‘ emergence also gives Doncic a proven co-star. The Lakers committed to that partnership this offseason by signing Reaves to a four-year, $185 million max extension.
Walker Kessler also provides a defensive foundation in the frontcourt after the Lakers acquired him in a blockbuster deal with the Utah Jazz to address one of their most significant weaknesses.
Fisher firmly thinks that the Lakers can stay in the playoff picture.
And interestingly, Fisher’s prediction of games also lines up with ESPN’s expectations on the lower end.
ESPN has projected the Lakers to win around 45 games this season, which represents an eight-win decline from last year’s 53 victories, but is hardly such a massive collapse compared to other LeBron James departures.
There are still major doubts around the Lakers. ESPN also picked them as the league’s most likely disappointing team, with questions about their defense, wing depth, and ability to replace everything that LeBron provided.
Fisher, however, does see one big difference.
Previous franchises had to figure out how to replace LeBron after he walked away, but the Lakers already have Luka.