Expectations are always high for No. 1 overall picks. Two years ago, that was Caleb Williams, and he did not deliver. A disappointing start to his career had many already questioning whether he would pan out. Fortunately, a new coaching staff and better supporting cast helped elevate the Bears QB in his sophomore season. Will Williams ascend to even greater heights in year three?
Should You Draft Caleb Williams in Fantasy Football?
There’s no denying Williams was more successful in his second season, both from a real-life and fantasy perspective. After winning just five games as a rookie, Williams led the Bears to 12 victories, a postseason appearance, and a playoff win as a sophomore. That is quite the leap, and both fantasy managers and Bears fans alike should be encouraged.
At the same time, it’s hard to pinpoint how Williams himself was meaningfully better year over year. The fantasy stats were. He averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game in 2025 compared to just 15.0 PPG in 2024. But statistically, he was actually worse in some regards.
Williams was more efficient through the air, averaging 0.6 more yards per attempt, but he actually completed a mere 58.1% of his passes. Among quarterbacks who started at least eight games, only three failed to complete 60% of their passes. Williams was sandwiched in between Cam Ward and JJ McCarthy. Not great!
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Williams was more aggressive downfield, but also put the ball at risk a lot more. He only threw seven interceptions, but was fortunate to not turn the ball over more.
A big part of Williams’ spike in fantasy production came from touchdowns. He threw seven more passing TDs in 2025 compared to 2024, plus added three on the ground (he had none as a rookie).
The good news is Williams’ touchdown rate as a rookie was abnormally low. His sophomore year TD rate (4.8%) is much more in line with what we see across the league. That should give fantasy managers confidence that what Williams did last season is something he can repeat, or perhaps even improve upon.
The Bears have one of the most creative and intelligent offensive minds in football leading the charge. They have a very strong supporting cast featuring Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland, and D’Andre Swift. There’s a lot to like about this offense and Williams’ status as, at worst, a low QB1 in fantasy.
Williams’ Redraft Fantasy Football Value
In recent seasons, it’s been more viable to spent premium draft capital on a quarterback than during the 2010s. The rise of the mobile QB has resulted in the elite fantasy quarterbacks not only having higher ceilings, but being more predictable year over year.
Williams is firmly in line with your modern NFL QB. He is not a rushing quarterback, but he has enough mobility to make an impact with his legs. A solid 17.2% of his fantasy points came from rushing last season.
Here’s where things get tricky for 2025, though. Williams finds himself in a cluster of mid-to-late QB1s that all share similar qualities. None of them project quite as well as the elites like Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, but they all have top-five upside if things break right. The problem is in differentiating between them.
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Guys like Williams, Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, and Jaxson Dart all have very viable paths to the top five. Yet, Williams leads this group in terms of ADP.
Given how flat the wide receivers get once you get into the WR2 range, combined with running backs falling off a cliff around the fifth round, there’s a strong case for taking a mid-range QB1. The question regarding Williams is why specifically him?
While there are reasons as to why Williams could have that 20 PPG upside, they aren’t compelling enough to take him multiple rounds ahead of his contemporaries. Additionally, Williams is going in the same spot as Jalen Hurts and Drake Maye. With Maye as our QB2 and Hurts our QB6, we can’t recommend taking our consensus QB7 where he goes.
Williams’ Dynasty Fantasy Football Value
Williams is in his third year, and he’s only 24 years old. There is a lot of football in front of him. At this point, it’s safe to say he will be a starting quarterback in this league until he’s not good anymore, which won’t be anytime soon. If you have Williams, you should feel really good about him long-term.
We have Williams at QB9 in our dynasty rankings. Among the top nine, only Maye is younger. In dynasty Superflex formats, it is very reassuring to know you have a QB1 locked onto your roster for 10+ years.
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With that said, there is a case to be made to flip Williams. He absolutely has room to grow, and we could be looking at him as a perennial top-five fantasy quarterback next year. However, right now, he’s not there. Yet, he’s being valued as if that ascent is mostly a foregone conclusion.
Selling Williams for Dart plus another piece is not a bad move in light of how similarly we view them in dynasty. You could also consider turning Williams into a more proven elite quarterback if you are thinking more short-term.
These are just considerations, though. By no means is Williams someone dynasty managers should actively look to get rid of. He has a modern skill set, a great offensive environment, and all of the tools to become one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy.
This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network.