College Football is so back!
No, not because Week 1 has finally arrived.
But because we got absolutely hosed in our debut best bets column last week. We went 1-2, but we were mere minutes away from going 2-1 until Stanford’s 31-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown with 1:12 put them up 10, effectively flushing our Hawai’i +3.5 best bet down the toilet.
Anyway, enough complaining! We have a loaded Week 1 slate ahead! So, this week, we will be doing four best bets! Let’s dive into it!
(All ddds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.)
Matt’s 2026 record: 1-2, -1.09 units
Nevada/Western Kentucky u52.5 (-112):
Skinny: This is a rematch between last year’s Week 4 meeting between the two teams in Bowling Green, Ky. Despite scoring just one touchdown, Nevada outplayed the Hilltoppers for most of the game, until a pair of fourth quarter WKU touchdowns plus a pick-six in the final seconds resulted in a 31-16 WKU victory.
Both teams will look different this time around. The Hilltoppers will feature north of 60 new players for the second-straight season, while the Wolf Pack, who were No. 128 (out of 136) in scoring and No. 126 in EPA/play offensively in 2025, completely overhauled their scheme this summer. Nevada will still have Carter Jones behind center, while WKU will have Rodney Tisdale Jr.
I think there will be an adjustment period for both teams. Plus, while Western Kentucky averaged 29.5 points in 2025, they are traveling across country and will be up against a sneaky good Nevada defense. I lean under here.
Hawai’i/UNLV u56.5 (-114):
Skinny: I was very unimpressed by UNLV’s defense (and offensive line … whew) in their season opener against Memphis. The same could be said about Hawai’i, who surrendered 483 yards of offense and 6.8 yards per play to … Davis Warren?! Yeesh! Both bad indicators.
But beware of the weather gods! Gusts are supposed to reach up to 30 miles per hour in Honolulu, and that’s a no-go for me as it pertains to playing the under. Auburn transfer Jackson Arnold looked quite good in Week 0, but I think the Runnin’ Rebels are going to live up to their name and try and protect their new signal caller, who completed 25 of his 37 attempts for 291 yards and two touchdowns versus Memphis.
I don’t expect much downfield passing between the two teams. Give me the under!
New Mexico/Central Michigan u46.5 (-110):
Skinny: With Jack Layne’s season-ending shoulder injury, the Lobos are expected to rotate three quarterbacks: James Laubstein, Luka Moga and Toa Fa’avae. Laubstein has experience at the Junior College level, playing two seasons for Sussex County CC (2022-23), but has only thrown 17 passes at the Division-I level. Moga, an Oregon transfer, threw five passes for the Ducks last year.
None of these quarterbacks have legitimate experience against D-I competition, and it appears this is still very much an open competition that one player has to grab. And Central Michigan ran the rock the 65.3 percent of the time last season, the eighth-highest mark in the nation. It’s worth noting that the Lobos were a top-35 team against the rush last year, too.
All of those indicators make me lean toward the under. There’s nothing that screams otherwise.
San Jose State +3.5 v. Eastern Michigan (-124):
Skinny: OK, I can’t end this by slamming every under without picking a side. So, we’re going with San Jose State, who currently has a juiced 3.5 next to their name.
USC’s 42-26 win over SJSU looks a little deceiving. USC was ahead 35-3 at the end of three quarters. However, I still walked away impressed with Hawai’i transfer, starting quarterback Luke Weaver, who went 21-of-32 for 234 yards and two touchdowns. His confidence, decision-making and precision grew as the game went on. I think that will carry over against a worse EMU defense, who also looked promising in their home opener versus Sacramento State.
Under Ken Niumatalolo, the Spartans are 8-3 ATS in non-conference games and 6-4 as a road ‘dog. I’m comfortable taking this number here.